NFL Week 7 Picks
December 1st NFL news ... NFL Week 7 Picks at nflweek7-picks.com
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (5-8) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (7-6)
Sportsbook.com Line & Total: San Diego -9.5 & 44.5
Two California teams clinging to playoff hopes meet in a must-win situation for both teams on Thursday night. San Francisco is 5-8 and trails division leaders St. Louis and Seattle by one game. San Diego’s win over Kansas City last week put the 7-6 Chargers a game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West standings. Both teams have major injury problems. In addition to RB Frank Gore on IR (hip), the 49ers’ top two linebackers, Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes, are both suffering hand injuries and are both listed as questionable.
San Diego has a slew of offensive injuries. WR Patrick Crayton (wrist) is out, TE Antonio Gates (feet) is doubtful and WR Malcom Floyd (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Thursday’s game. The good news is that WRs Vincent Jackson (calf) and Legedu Naanee (hamstring) will both play against San Francisco.
The 49ers are playing much better football recently, winning five of eight games after starting the season 0-5. Alex Smith will start at quarterback again for San Francisco after completing 17-of-27 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 40-21 win over Seattle. Smith, who missed the previous five games with a shoulder injury, is tasked with moving the football against the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. San Diego is only allowing 173 passing YPG with only one game of surrendering 300 passing yards.
Despite Gore’s injury, San Francisco has rushed the ball well in its past three games with 453 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. Brian Westbrook has 190 rushing yards in the three games and also caught six passes for 87 yards and a touchdown against Seattle last week. Rookie RB Anthony Dixon has also thrived in his increased role, gaining 147 yards on 37 carries (4.0 YPC) since Gore got hurt. TE Vernon Davis is now healthy and a much bigger factor in the offense with Alex Smith throwing him the football. Davis has nine catches for 196 yards and two touchdowns in his past two games.
The Chargers are also hot, winning five of their past six games (SU and ATS). After rushing for just 21 yards in a loss to Oakland, San Diego ripped off 207 rushing yards in the win over Kansas City, while holding the NFL’s top rushing offense to 48 yards on 17 carries. Mike Tolbert (16 rush, 66 yds, TD) and Ryan Mathews (16 rush, 65 yds, TD) had nearly identical numbers against KC, while Darren Sproles ran for 53 yards on just six carries. San Diego could have more success this week if Willis and Spikes are sidelined for San Francisco.
75% of action at Sportsbook.com is behind the home team Chargers against the spread.
The running game will be key if Gates and Floyd, the team’s top two receivers, are limited on Thursday. The duo has combined for 1,442 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this year. Despite all the injuries in the passing game this season, San Diego still ranks second in the league in passing offense. QB Philip Rivers has thrown for 298 YPG with 26 TD and 11 INT and should have success against the 49ers’ 20th-ranked pass defense giving up 227 YPG. The Chargers have only won the turnover battle three times all season and have a minus-7 turnover ratio for the year.
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units.)
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units.)
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-6) at TENNESSEE TITANS (5-7)
Sportsbook.com Line: Indianapolis -4 & NFL Lines 45.
The Colts try to avoid their first four-game losing streak since 2001 when they visit Tennessee, losers of five straight, on Thursday night. Both teams know their only shot to make the playoffs is to win their final four games to take the AFC South Division crown. While Tennessee is relatively injury-free, the Colts have a gaggle of injury concerns. RB Joseph Addai (neck), RB Mike Hart (ankle) and WR Austin Collie (concussions) are all out for Thursday’s game, while TE Jacob Tamme (knee) is questionable and WR Reggie Wayne (knee) is probable to play at Tennessee.
Colts QB Peyton Manning has thrown an uncanny 11 interceptions during the losing streak, but he has won three straight games against the Titans, throwing for five scores and just one interception in those contests. The big reason Manning is forcing the issue through the air is that the running game has been terrible without Addai and Hart. Over the past five games, the Colts are averaging a mere 55 rushing YPG on 3.0 yards per carry.
Sportsbook.com opened the Colts -3 & a ridiculous 92% of action is behind Indianapolis.
Tennessee is glad the Colts are forced to throw the football because the Titans can’t stop anybody on the ground. Tennessee has allowed 159 rushing YPG during its losing skid, including 258 to Jacksonville last week. The Titans have many more issues on the offensive side of the ball, failing to score an offensive touchdown in 13 straight quarters of action. Kerry Collins will start at QB again, despite his woeful performance against the Jaguars (14-of-32, 169 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT). RB Chris Johnson also needs to pick up his game, as he has gained a paltry 58 rushing yards in his past two games. He could find plenty of holes in a Colts defense surrendering 171 rushing YPG during their three-game losing skid.
These teams have been pretty evenly matched when they play in Tennessee, with Indianapolis 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) in the past eight games at LP Field. These two trends show why home underdog Tennessee is the play for Thursday night.
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (TENNESSEE) - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. (79-38 since 1983.) (67.5%, +37.2 units. Rating = 3*)
Play Against - Favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game.
(34-10 since 1983.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*).
Play Over - Any team against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points.
(31-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).
INDIANAPOLIS is 23-6 OVER (79.3%, +16.4 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 23.6, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*).
Sportsbook.com has recently put up “Team Playoff Props”. Will the Colts make the postseason for the ninth consecutive year? The Yes is -120.
Seymour fined for Right-Hook to Roethlisberger
In the 2009 season, the Oakland Raiders only won five games, meaning they went 5-11 last season. This year, things appear to be turning around, even just a little, as the Raiders are 5-6, a marked improvement over last year. In fact, the Raiders were riding a three game winning streak. In order for that streak to have had any chance of staying alive, they shouldn’t have played the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Big Ben and the gang put up 35 points against the Raiders, and only spotted them three points for a blowout of mega proportions in Pittsburgh.
Well, these things happen, and I was more than excited to hear that the Raiders were playing the Steelers, because I knew this sort of thing would happen. Blowouts happen, especially to teams run by Al Davis and Tom Cable and playing the Steelers. However, it wasn’t the final score that caused the Raiders to slip back into their pathetic ways. NFL betting is also jumping ship on the Raiders, they are so up and down that betting on them is a risky proposition.
Defensive lineman Richard Seymour, clearly and easily out of frustration, smacked Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger following a 22 yard touchdown pass from Roethlisberger, thus increasing the Steelers’ lead to 21-3 in the second quarter. Hey, I know why Seymour hauled off and laid one on Big Ben: He was frustrated, pure and simple. Frustrated because his team was losing by 18 points and it wasn’t even halftime, frustrated because he’s in a Raiders uniform, frustrated that he’s forced to live in that God-awful city, and frustrated because he’s in a Raiders uniform. Still, despite all the frustration, emotions have to be kept in check. This isn’t high school, or prison, so grow up. It’s understood that some of the offensive lineman for the Steelers were running their mouths, and that’s enraging, but that’s still no reason to hit someone.
Seymour hit Roethlisberger while Seymour was arguing with the offensive lineman of the Steelers. Big Ben came over to separate the group, so that his team wouldn’t receive a penalty, and then boom! Big Ben goes down like a sack of laundry. Seymour didn’t even hit the guy he was arguing with, and that just shows the immense lack of discipline that runs amuck within the Raiders organization. The NFL released Seymour’s punishment for the hit on Monday: A $25,000 fine, but no suspension, which is good news for the Raiders I guess, but bad news for the next quarterback.
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